Why Video Poker Is Different
Unlike slots — where the outcome is determined entirely by the random number generator — video poker includes a decision point on every hand. After the initial five-card deal, you choose which cards to hold and which to discard. This decision has a mathematically correct answer: the hold combination that maximises expected value.
On a full pay Jacks or Better machine (9/6 pay table), optimal strategy produces 99.54% RTP — a 0.46% house edge. Compare this to the house edge on roulette (2.70-5.26%) or average online slots (3-5%). The difference is substantial: over $10,000 wagered, video poker costs $46 versus $270-526 for roulette.
Prof. Boston says
"Video poker is the closest thing to a fair game in the casino. The pay table is posted on the machine. The probability of every hand is calculable. The optimal strategy is known and published. The casino's edge comes entirely from the gap between optimal play and actual play. If every player played perfectly, 9/6 Jacks or Better would barely be profitable for the house."
Jacks or Better Pay Table
This is the standard 9/6 full pay Jacks or Better pay table — the most common full-pay variant. The "Expected Frequency" column shows how often each hand appears with optimal play. The "Return Contribution" shows what percentage of the total 99.54% RTP each hand represents.
| Hand | Payout (per coin) | Frequency | Return Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 800* | 1 in 40,390 | 1.98% |
| Straight Flush | 50 | 1 in 9,148 | 0.55% |
| Four of a Kind | 25 | 1 in 423 | 5.91% |
| Full House | 9 | 1 in 87 | 10.36% |
| Flush | 6 | 1 in 91 | 6.61% |
| Straight | 4 | 1 in 89 | 4.49% |
| Three of a Kind | 3 | 1 in 13 | 22.33% |
| Two Pair | 2 | 1 in 8 | 25.86% |
| Jacks or Better | 1 | 1 in 5 | 21.46% |
* Royal Flush pays 800 coins at max bet (5 coins). At lower bets, the payout is 250 coins — this difference accounts for roughly 2% of total RTP. Always bet max coins.
Optimal Strategy Chart
The following chart lists the hold priority for Jacks or Better 9/6. When dealt a hand, find the highest-ranked combination that applies and hold those cards. Discard everything else.
Always Hold — Made Hands
Drawing Hands — Hold + Draw
Critical Decision
The most common mistake in video poker: breaking a made pair to chase a flush or straight draw. A low pair (expected value: ~0.82 coins) beats a 4-card outside straight draw (~0.68 coins) in almost all situations. The correct decision often feels wrong because the potential payout of the straight is higher. Expected value, not potential payout, determines optimal play.
Video Poker Variants by House Edge
Not all video poker games are created equal. The variant and pay table determine the theoretical return. Here is how the most common variants compare, assuming optimal strategy for each.
| Variant | Pay Table | RTP | House Edge | Strategy Complexity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuces Wild | Full Pay | 100.76% | −0.76% | Complex |
| Jacks or Better | 9/6 Full Pay | 99.54% | 0.46% | Moderate |
| Double Bonus | 10/7/5 | 99.17% | 0.83% | Complex |
| Bonus Poker | 8/5 | 99.17% | 0.83% | Moderate |
| Double Double Bonus | 9/6 | 98.98% | 1.02% | Complex |
| Jacks or Better | 8/5 Short Pay | 97.30% | 2.70% | Moderate |
| Jacks or Better | 7/5 Short Pay | 96.15% | 3.85% | Moderate |
| Jacks or Better | 6/5 Short Pay | 95.00% | 5.00% | Moderate |
Notice the dramatic impact of pay table reductions. Moving from 9/6 to 6/5 Jacks or Better increases the house edge from 0.46% to 5.00% — a tenfold increase. The pay table matters more than the strategy. Always check the full house and flush payouts before sitting down.
Expected Value Per Hand
In game theory terms, every video poker hand is a decision tree with 32 possible hold/discard combinations (2^5 cards). For each combination, the expected value can be calculated by enumerating all possible replacement cards and their resulting hand values.
The optimal strategy chart above is simply the result of solving this decision tree for every possible starting hand. The strategy that maximises expected value across all 2,598,960 possible starting hands produces the 99.54% theoretical return.
Prof. Boston says
"Video poker is the purest game theory problem in the casino. Each hand has exactly one optimal solution — the hold combination with the highest expected value. There is no bluffing, no opponent reads, no table dynamics. Just a solvable mathematical decision repeated over hundreds of hands. For anyone who wants to understand expected value as a practical tool, video poker is the perfect laboratory."
Bankroll Requirements
Even at 99.54% RTP, video poker has significant short-term variance. The royal flush — which contributes ~2% of the total return — appears only once every 40,390 hands on average. Until you hit one, your effective RTP runs closer to 97.5%.
A standard bankroll recommendation for Jacks or Better is 1,000-1,500x your bet size. At $1.25 per hand (5 coins at $0.25), that means a $1,250-$1,875 bankroll. This provides a less than 5% risk of ruin over a typical session cycle. The bankroll calculator can model this more precisely for your specific situation.
Related Analysis
What Is House Edge? — The Foundation of Casino Mathematics Best Payout Online Casino — Platforms Ranked by Return Rate Slot Volatility Guide — Understanding Variance in Casino Games Expected Value Explained — The Framework Behind Every Decision Game Theory & Gambling — Decision-Making Under Uncertainty The Lab — Bankroll Calculator and Bonus EV Tools